Orlando median price continues its upward trend as sales and inventory slip
Highlights from the Orlando Regional Realtor Association’s most recent Market Pulse.
The median price of Orlando area homes rose 14 percent year-over-year in October. Meanwhile, sales decreased 8 percent as inventory took its greatest year-over-year tumble in 2016 and dropped by 12 percent.
“October’s drop in sales can be attributed to a mix of the disruption caused by Hurricane Matthew and uncertainty caused by the election, in addition to our continuing challenge of declines in homes available for purchase,” explains Orlando Regional REALTOR® Association President John Lazenby, Colony Realty Group.
“Immediately after even a mild hurricane without much damage, scheduled closings can be delayed by the need for additional appraisals or inspections, while sellers can put off listing their homes for a week or more,” says Lazenby. “And of course an election year brings a natural state of uncertainty to the housing market as both buyers and sellers wait to see what the future brings. For many people, a home represents the largest investment of their life, so during an election year they delay taking action until the economy is less of an unknown. This phenomenon can be seen in the “New Listings” tally for the month, which dropped by 17 percent compared to October 2015 despite Orlando’s current market conditions that strongly favor sellers.”
The overall median price (all sales types and all home types combined) for the month of October 2016 is $205,000, a 13.95 percent jump compared to the $179,900 median price in October 2015. The median price is steady compared to the September 2016 median of also $205,000.
The Orlando median home price has now experienced year-over-year increases for the past 63 consecutive months; as of October the median price is 77.49 percent higher than it was in July 2011.
The year-to-year median price of normal sales increased 8.30 percent, while the median price for foreclosure sales increased 16.60 percent and short sales increased 20.00 percent.
The median price of single-family homes increased 14.13 percent when compared to October of last year, and the median price of condos increased 9.08 percent.
Members of ORRA participated in the sale of 2,654 homes (all home types and all sale types combined) that closed in October 2016, a decrease of 7.75 percent compared to October 2015. Sales decreased by 14.66 percent in October when compared to last month.
Sales of normal homes increased 6.08 percent in October 2016, while foreclosures decreased 57.12 percent and short sales decreased 32.43 percent. Sales of single-family homes decreased 6.38 percent year over year; condo sales decreased 14.03 percent.
Homes of all types spent an average of 61 days on the market before coming under contract in October 2016, and the average home sold for 96.88 percent of its listing price. In October 2015 those numbers were 71 days and 96.76 percent, respectively.
The average interest rate paid by Orlando homebuyers in October was 3.57 percent. Last month, the average interest rate was 3.53 percent, while in October of last year homebuyers paid an average interest rate of 3.86 percent.
Pending sales – those under contract and awaiting closing – are currently at 4,719. The number of pending sales in October 2016 is 10.64 percent lower than it was in October 2015 and 2.72 percent higher than it was in September 2016.
Normal properties made up 75.19 percent of pending sales in October 2016. Short sales accounted for 14.45 percent, while bank-owned properties accounted for 10.36 percent.
The number of existing homes (all types combined) that were available for purchase in October is 12.15 percent below that of October 2015 and now rests at 10,025. Inventory decreased by 3.25 percent (337 homes in number) compared to last month.
The inventory of normal homes decreased 2.28 percent, while foreclosures decreased 67.11 percent and short sales decreased 46.12 percent.
The inventory of single-family homes is down by 12.67 percent when compared to October of 2015, while condo inventory is down by 13.81 percent. The inventory of duplexes, townhomes, and villas is down by 4.27 percent.
Current inventory combined with the current pace of sales created a 3.78-month supply of homes in Orlando for October. There was a 3.97-month supply in October 2015 and a 3.33-month supply last month.
The October affordability index is 161.08, a tiny decrease from October’s 161.74 percent. (An affordability index of 99 percent means that buyers earning the state-reported median income are 1 percent short of the income necessary to purchase a median-priced home. Conversely, an affordability index that is over 100 means that median-income earners make more than is necessary to qualify for a median-priced home.)
Buyers who earn the reported median income of $57,437 can qualify to purchase one of 4,214 homes in Orange and Seminole counties currently listed in the local multiple listing service for $330,217 or less.
First-time homebuyer affordability in October decreased to 114.55 from last month’s 115.02 percent. First-time buyers who earn the reported median income of 39,057 can qualify to purchase one of the 1,953 homes in Orange and Seminole counties currently listed in the local multiple listing service for $199,598 or less.
Condos and Town Homes/Duplexes/Villas
The sales of condos in the Orlando area were down by 14.03 percent, with 288 sales recorded in October 2016 compared to 335 in October 2015.
Orlando homebuyers purchased 237 duplexes, town homes, and villas in October 2016, which is 11.57 percent less than in October 2015.
Sales of existing homes within the entire Orlando MSA (Lake, Orange, Osceola, and Seminole counties) in October (3,150) were down by 8.27 percent when compared to October of 2015 (3,434). To date, sales in the MSA are down 0.86 percent.
Each individual county’s monthly sales comparisons are as follows:
• Lake: 2.49 percent below October 2015;
• Orange: 9.56 percent below October 2015;
• Osceola: 14.54 percent below October 2015; and
• Seminole: 4.07 percent below October 2015.