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Orlando Market Pulse: November 2016

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Orlando home sales, median price increase along with mortgage rate in November

From the Orlando Regional Realtor Association’s most recent Market Pulse.

Orlando home sales experienced a 7 percent year-over-year jump in November, along with a 9 percent increase in median price. The average interest rate paid by an Orlando homebuyer is November is 3.82 percent, up from 3.57 percent.

Orlando Regional REALTOR® Association President John Lazenby, Colony Realty Group, Inc., points out that buyer demand lifted year-over-year sales despite a dramatic drop in the number of homes available for purchase that occurred in November.

“The substantial decrease in inventory — nearly 18 percent compared to November 2015 — can be attributed in part to the shifting of “Active With Contract” listings from the “Active Inventory” category to the “Pending” category within our local multiple listing system, a process that took place in November” explains Lazenby. “After adjusting for the elimination of “Active With Contract” homes, the November 2016 inventory is 12.40 percent lower than in November 2015 and more in line with the decreases we have seen this year.”

“The “Active With Contract” status was initiated by the multiple listing system in the spring of 2011 to accommodate the influx of short sales onto the Orlando area housing market,” continues Lazenby. “Now that short sales account for so little of Orlando area’s inventory, in fact only four percent in November, the status has been removed.”

The transfer of “Active With Contract” homes into “Pending” status also resulted in an increase of 9 percent when comparing the number of pending homes in November to the number of pending homes last month, and an increase of 19 percent in the number of homes flagged as newly under contract.

Median Price

The overall median price (all sales types and all home types combined) for the month of November 2016 is $200,000, a 8.70 percent jump compared to the $184,000 median price in November 2015. The median price is 2.44 percent below the October 2016 median of $205,000.

The Orlando median home price has now experienced year-over-year increases for the past 64 consecutive months; as of November the median price is 73.16 percent higher than it was in July 2011.

The year-to-year median price of normal sales increased 5.00 percent, while the median price for foreclosure sales increased 20.00 percent and short sales decreased 9.38 percent.

The median price of single-family homes rose 10.79 percent when compared to November of last year, and the median price of condos increased 16.00 percent.

Completed Sales

Members of ORRA participated in the sale of 2,481 homes (all home types and all sale types combined) that closed in November 2016, an increase of 6.71 percent compared to November 2015. Sales decreased by 8.15 percent in November when compared to last month.

Sales of normal homes increased 22.94 percent in November 2016, while foreclosures decreased 52.61 percent and short sales decreased 25.00 percent. Sales of single-family homes increased 8.42 percent year over year; condo sales increased 0.36 percent.

Homes of all types spent an average of 66 days on the market before coming under contract in November 2016, and the average home sold for 96.93 percent of its listing price. In November 2015 those numbers were 68 days and 97.00 percent, respectively.

The average interest rate paid by Orlando homebuyers in November was 3.82 percent. Last month, the average interest rate was 3.57 percent, while in November of last year homebuyers paid an average interest rate of 4.01 percent.

Pending Sales

Pending sales – those under contract and awaiting closing – are currently at 5,122. The number of pending sales in November 2016 is 1.18 percent lower than it was in November 2015 and 8.54 percent higher than it was in October 2016.

Normal properties made up 76.94 percent of pending sales in November 2016. Short sales accounted for 13.65 percent, while bank-owned properties accounted for 9.41 percent.

Inventory

The number of existing homes (all types combined) that were available for purchase in November is 17.96 percent below that of November 2015 and now rests at 9,270. Note: When adjusted for the elimination of “Active With Contract” status homes from of the active listings category within the local multiple listing service — a process that began in November — the November 2016 inventory is 12.40 percent lower than in November 2015.

Inventory decreased by 7.53 percent (755 homes in number) compared to last month.

The inventory of normal homes decreased 8.85 percent, while foreclosures decreased 70.47 percent and short sales decreased 51.69 percent.

The inventory of single-family homes is down by 19.12 percent when compared to November of 2015, while condo inventory is down by 14.44 percent. The inventory of duplexes, townhomes, and villas is down by 13.45 percent.

Current inventory combined with the current pace of sales created a 3.74-month supply of homes in Orlando for November. There was a 4.86-month supply in November 2015 and a 3.71-month supply last month.

Affordability

The November affordability index is 160.37, a tiny decrease from October’s 161.08 percent. (An affordability index of 99 percent means that buyers earning the state-reported median income are 1 percent short of the income necessary to purchase a median-priced home. Conversely, an affordability index that is over 100 means that median-income earners make more than is necessary to qualify for a median-priced home.)

Buyers who earn the reported median income of $57,494 can qualify to purchase one of 3,540 homes in Orange and Seminole counties currently listed in the local multiple listing service for $320,737 or less.

First-time homebuyer affordability in November decreased to 114.04 from last month’s 114.55 percent. First-time buyers who earn the reported median income of $39,096 can qualify to purchase one of the 1,593 homes in Orange and Seminole counties currently listed in the local multiple listing service for $193,868 or less.

Condos and Town Homes/Duplexes/Villas

The sales of condos in the Orlando area were up by 0.36, with 281 sales recorded in November 2016 compared to 280 in November 2015.

Orlando homebuyers purchased 229 duplexes, town homes, and villas in November 2016, which is 0.88 percent less than in November 2015.

MSA Numbers

Sales of existing homes within the entire Orlando MSA (Lake, Orange, Osceola, and Seminole counties) in November (3,037) were up by 5.23 percent when compared to November of 2015 (2,886). To date, sales in the MSA are down 0.27 percent.

Each individual county’s monthly sales comparisons are as follows:

• Lake: 18.89 percent above November 2015;
• Orange: 2.88 percent below November 2015;
• Osceola: 19.23 percent above November 2015; and
• Seminole: 5.77 percent above November 2015.

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bobbybaldor